Tuesday, April 12, 2011

An Invasion of Israel in 2012?

A Possible Scenario: After extensive preparation of the apparatus of statehood and widespread recognition by a growing list of countries of an "independent state of Palestine with borders defined by the 1967 cease-fire lines", the Palestinians turn in September 2011 to the UN Security Council to be recognized as an independent State within the pre-1967 armistice lines– meaning that the Ramat Eshkol neighborhood of Jerusalem, as well as many others, will be part of Security-Council-recognized Palestine.

The USA does not veto this resolution (the recent US veto of the anti-settlement Security Council resolution was a feint, and not a precedent) and it passes; alternatively, if there is a veto, the Palestinians turn to the UN General Assembly, using the 1950's "Uniting for Peace" tactic which enabled the USA to engage in the Korean War although a Russian-Chinese veto had paralyzed the Security Council on this issue and receive their approval.

The Palestinians then turn to the State of Israel and request immediate evacuation of its nearly 650,000 citizens from "their state". Israel offers to discuss the matter, the Palestinians refuse any discussion and refer the issue back to the Security Council, requesting that they act to remove these interlopers post haste from "their state". After a short time, the Security Council and/or Quartet decide that the festering wound of the Israel-Palestine conflict has persisted long enough and decide to settle the matter once and for all by sending an expeditionary force to Israel to carry out the evacuation forcibly.

The deadline for Israel acting is by January 15, 2012. On or about that date, if Israel does not begin to seriously evacuate its citizens (and it won't), an expeditionary force consisting of contingents from both Christian and Moslem countries lands on the shores of Israel. The force consists of at least 185,000 combat soldiers, and is well-armed enough to counter the IDF (Israel Defense Forces) in whatever conflict configuration that might develop.